Recent research indicates that a significant environmental crisis could potentially halve the global population by 2064, decreasing from an estimated 8 to 10 billion to just 4 to 5 billion people. This study, published on May 22 in the journal Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, utilized a mathematical model created by Alessio Zaccone of the University of Milan and his late colleague Kostya Trachenko to analyze historical population growth over the last 12,000 years.
The authors suggest that if Earth's carrying capacity were to drop to approximately 2 billion, a rapid decline in population could occur. However, Zaccone clarified that the findings are not predictions but rather illustrative scenarios highlighting the sensitivity of population dynamics to sudden changes in environmental or societal conditions. He reassured that the current population trends remain relatively stable, ensuring no immediate collapse is foreseen.
The research revisits the "doomsday" scenario originally proposed by Heinz von Foerster and others in 1960, which predicted unlimited population growth. Although that scenario did not materialize due to declining birth rates, Zaccone noted that conditions could still lead to the reemergence of rapid growth patterns under specific circumstances.