The likelihood of a US invasion of Iran has risen to 63% according to the Polymarket prediction platform, spurred by recent comments from President Donald Trump. Despite this increase, the chances of an invasion occurring before 2027 have decreased from a peak of 68% reached on March 29, influenced by a buildup of US troops and discussions concerning the strategic capture of Kharg Island.
On Tuesday, following Trump's indications that the US might withdraw from Iran within a few weeks, Bitcoin saw a rise of approximately 2.6%, while the S&P 500 index increased by about 2.91%. However, Trump's latest remarks reversed this optimism, where he warned about significant actions in Iran, calling for the opening of a key shipping strait.
As a result of the mixed messages from the Trump administration, investor uncertainty remains high, impacting various risk asset prices. While Bitcoin's price has stabilized around $67,500, Brent crude oil continues to trade above $109 per barrel. Analysts are closely monitoring the situation as market dynamics shift in response to the ongoing tensions.