Despite recent fluctuations, Bitcoin (BTC) remains the top-performing macro asset since the onset of the US and Israel-Iran conflict, suggesting a potential bottom formation as investors maintain their positions. Currently, BTC faces strong resistance around the $74,000 mark, while trading between a realized price of $54,400 and a true market mean of $78,000. Historical trends indicate that sharp rallies during midterm election years are rare, with significant drawdowns observed in the past.
According to data from Glassnode, the bears are actively defending against bullish attempts to breach the resistance at $74,508. The flattening of the 20-day exponential moving average at $69,271 and an uptick in the relative strength index (RSI) hint at a possible bullish breakout. Should BTC surpass this resistance, it could potentially rise to $84,000. Conversely, if it falls below critical support levels, a decline to the $62,500 to $60,000 range could occur.
Meanwhile, Ether (ETH) is under pressure as sellers challenge its relief rally at the 50-day simple moving average of $2,173. The resilience of buyers will be crucial to prevent ETH from slipping below the 20-day EMA, currently at $2,036.