The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has unveiled a new regulatory framework that could significantly impact prediction markets. Released on June 10, 2026, the proposed rules aim to allow many sports-based prediction contracts while placing limitations on bets that could promote manipulation.
According to the CFTC, contracts linked to final scores and win-loss records can facilitate price discovery, distinguishing them from games of pure chance. However, contracts reliant on outcomes susceptible to manipulation, such as player injuries or officiating decisions, may not align with public interest standards. The proposal also excludes election contracts from the definition of “gaming” under federal law, which may alleviate regulatory concerns for platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, both of which gained traction during the 2024 US presidential election.
The draft rules are currently open for public comment for a period of 45 days. Legal expert Gary Kalbaugh noted that these principles-based proposals require a case-by-case assessment for each contract's compliance with public interest criteria. The evolving landscape of prediction markets, now characterized as an “asset class,” reflects a surge in adoption amidst heightened interest from investors and traditional financial institutions.