Recent findings from Galaxy Research indicate that Bitcoin's price may stabilize at higher levels than seen in prior downturns. The research suggests a potential floor price in the range of $40,000 to $46,000, with a more severe scenario predicting a drop to between $30,000 and $37,000.
Alex Thorn, the head of research at Galaxy Digital, highlighted that Bitcoin's peak-to-trough declines have lessened over recent cycles, falling from 85% in earlier years to 51% in 2026. The analysis also noted that Bitcoin’s realized price stands at $53,600, which influences the cycle's bottoming process.
Thorn pointed out that while some indicators suggest a bottom is forming, many key signals are still absent. Historically, Bitcoin's cycle bottoms have occurred approximately 12 to 13 months after peaks, while this current drawdown has lasted about eight months. The muted nature of the recent price top may contribute to a higher floor, as reflected in the network's cost basis being significantly more stable compared to previous cycles.