In 2026, the global notebook market is projected to experience a significant contraction, with estimated shipments dropping to 173 million units, reflecting a 5.4% year-over-year decrease. This downturn is primarily linked to escalating memory prices, which are impacting profit margins and pricing strategies for manufacturers.
TrendForce's updated forecast indicates that without improvements in memory availability, the decline could worsen to 10.1%. Apple, however, is anticipated to navigate these challenges more effectively due to its integrated supply chain and strong pricing power. This flexibility allows Apple to adapt its product offerings while maintaining steady procurement volumes.
Additionally, the report highlights that Apple is set to launch a low-cost MacBook in spring 2026, which could enhance its market penetration despite the overall downturn. Meanwhile, the broader LCD panel market is expected to contract by 7.9%, while OLED shipments are projected to grow at a slower rate.
Alongside this, IDC has warned of a potential 9% drop in PC shipments due to a severe memory chip shortage, which may extend into 2027. The extent of this decline will depend on evolving market conditions.