Bitcoin's price surged to over $81,000 for the first time in three months, marking a 7% increase within the past week. However, the current rally faces skepticism due to a lack of enthusiasm in the derivatives market, where metrics indicate low trader participation. Institutional interest remains robust, as evidenced by record inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs.
Despite the upward price movement, derivatives suggest a cautious outlook. The 2-month futures basis rate was reported at a 1% annualized premium, significantly below the typical 4% to 8% range expected by sellers. This trend has persisted since late January, contributing to the muted sentiment among traders.
Additionally, the delta skew for Bitcoin options remained slightly bearish, despite approaching the neutral 6% threshold. This indicates that professional traders are not overly concerned about a potential downturn. Nonetheless, inflation concerns, with US expectations nearing a decade high, are influencing market sentiment and could impact future price dynamics.