Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 6% decline this year, potentially positioning it to mark a bearish trend following its recent halving. The current price is stagnant around $88,000, with market analysts noting the possibility of a retest at $93,500 before the end of the year. This situation raises concerns about the validity of the four-year cycle theory if the yearly candle closes in red.
Despite the lack of volatility over the past two days, traders are observing a three-day bullish divergence that could signal a shift in momentum. The market’s activity has been subdued, influenced by a significant $24 billion options expiry event that has kept prices in check. Analysts suggest that capital redeployment may not occur until early January 2026, when institutions typically invest in underperforming assets.
Predictions indicate that a breakout could lead Bitcoin towards a price target of $100,000. Some experts anticipate that tax-related sell-offs could prompt renewed buying interest among investors as the year closes, potentially altering the current price trajectory.